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Full Liberalization For Forex Trading
Rather the State Bank would have to evolve less direct but nevertheless effective-techniques of monetary control. But how sophisticated need this control mechanism be to maintain full convertibility? For small open economies like Hungary and Yugoslavia, the answer depends heavily on whether a pegged or a freely floating exchange-rate system is selected. In the case of a floating exchange rate, the whole panoply of monetary control devices used in advanced industrial economies becomes necessary.
Discretionary open-market training operations to actively alter the domestic money supply and a discount rate of interest that effectively limits borrowing by enterprises, are two such techniques. If the lending and deposit functions of the State Bank were themselves decentralized to a subsidiary set of commercial banks, the Central Bank would then worry about the proper reserve to deposit ratio and the proportion of coin and currency vis-à-vis deposits in private portfolios. For a fledgling central bank to get the supply of money under its complete control-and then accurately estimate the aggregate domestic demand for it-would be extremely difficult in an economy where individuals and enterprises have little experience with free choice in money holding and capital markets are imperfect. Yet such strong monetary control would be necessary to stabilize the domestic price level on the one hand, and to stabilize a floating forex rate on the other. There is an easier way out. If the international economy is tranquil such that commodity prices in the convertible foreign currency of a major trading partner are themselves reasonably stable, our liberalizing CPE could simply peg its exchange rate to that currency. With free convertibility on current account in both the commodity and foreign exchange senses, the price level in domestic currency would be established. Without knowing quite what it is or what it should be, the domestic authorities could then allow the domestic money supply to be endogenously determined through foreign exchange transactions designed to maintain the pegged exchange rate.
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