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Foreign Trade
My concern is to minimize economic risk in foreign trade per se, rather than to analyze the benign or perverse effects of particular accounting rules imposed on multinational firms with overseas affiliates. Finally, the distinction between tradable I and tradable II is highlighted within an appropriately designed hedging procedure, a distinction that would carry over into analyzing the translation problem under alternative formal accounting rules.
Consider first a prototype Dutch importer of tradable I-say, Swedish Volvos invoiced in kronor to be paid on open-account market credit. Volvos arrive in discrete lots; on January 1, the importer receives his complete inventory of Volvos that he expects to sell in the next three or four months. To keep matters simple, suppose initially that he decides to repay in full in 90 days (on April 1) in order to take advantage of a favorable discount offered by the Swedish Volvo Corporation. How much kronor should he now purchase 90 days forward in order to minimize the variance in his income position from possible fluctuations on the guilder exchange rate?23
The answer depends heavily on the extent to which he can adjust the guilder price of Volvos in response to exchange rate changes. Suppose the krona unexpectedly appreciated against the guilder by 10 percent after the importer had incurred uncovered krona debts but before he sold any automobiles. The guilder value of his accounts payable has now risen by 10 percent. However, if the importer can raise the guilder selling price of his inventory charting by 10 percent perhaps because the main competition is from other dealers in imported auto- mobiles who face the same change in exchange rate, this inventory valuation adjustment exactly offsets the fact that his krona debts are 10 percent more expensive in guilders-his currency habitat. His loss on currency trading is just counterbalanced by the increased guilder prices of Volvos yet to be sold-a process that is exactly reversed if the guilder had appreciated in terms ofltronor.
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